It may surprise you to learn that one of the world’s best indicators of overconfidence is the performance of a single stock: Sotheby’s.  As I’ve previously written, peaks in the auction house’s stock price have historically coincided with financial and economic exuberance. So what's it telling...

A wildfire rages, displacing tens of thousands. Droughts ravage crops, leaving tens of millions hungry. An African nation sells off some of its famous wildlife. Bleaching maims stretches of the Great Barrier Reef. What the heck is going on? El Niño.Extraordinarily dry conditions fueled the wildfire that recently tore through the western Canadian...

Brazil is suffering from a toxic cocktail of economic, political, and public health crises. Once hailed as a beacon of emerging market growth, the country now wallows in pessimism.Brazil’s growth rate fell from 7.5 percent in 2010 to -3.8 percent in 2015; a worsecontraction is expected this year....

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