All Clear! Stability Spreading and Growth Accelerating

Anyone who’s been following my thoughts recently will immediately recognize my headline as an April Fool’s Day joke.  I am extremely concerned about the health of the global economy and see risks almost everywhere I look.

Last month I was invited to guest host CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe.  During the hour I was on air, I discussed my views on global economic conditions and how they might constrain the Fed as well as the precarious fate of Silicon Valley’s unicorns.  Click on the links below to see four short video excerpts.

Yale Academic Sees Bubbles Bursting Everywhere
Will Tech Unicorns Deliver on IPO Talk?
Rate Hikes Unlikely This Year
Mansharamani Says Data From China Is Biased

The world I see continues to be fragile, with widespread risks of both political and economic instability.  Interestingly, even the Fed is increasingly focused on global dynamics, as noted in Fed Chair Yellen’s speech earlier this week at the Economic Club of NYC.  As I’ve argued, I think the Fed is unlikely to raise rates much (if at all) this year.

In other news, my Yale seminar on business ethics continues to be fun and engaging.  Since my last newsletter, guests have included senior leaders from Peter Kiewit & Sons, former president of Doctors Without Borders Unni Karunakara, manufacturing innovator Kevin Czinger, and Yale’s legendary Chief Investment Officer David Swensen.  I feel really lucky to have such great students and guests who stimulate wonderful discussions.

For my weekly insights on navigating our increasingly interconnected and uncertain world, please follow me on my various social media channels. To stay up to date with my work on Facebook, please like my page here. Follow me on Twitter here and LinkedIn here. And for those receiving this email from a friend or colleague, you can add yourself to my mailing list here.

Best wishes for safe passage through today’s global political and economic cross-currents.

Is China About to Mine the Moon?

China is rocketing forward with its ambitious space program.  Near-term plans include developing a Chinese space station and possibly mining the moon for helium-3, a potentially game-changing fuel for use in fusion.  Click HERE for my comment.


The $2 Billion Market for Passports

The rapidly growing market for economic citizenship shows no sign of abating anytime soon. Key drivers include desires among the wealthy for greater mobility and an insurance policy against home country instability.  Read my article HERE.


Syria & Climate Change

On the fifth anniversary of the Syrian conflict, I looked back at some of the factors that led to the violence.  A key culprit: climate change and a massive drought.   My post also explores lessons we might learn from Syria for navigating uncertainty.  Click HERE to read it.


Silicon Valley & Spies

As the Apple-FBI standoff grew increasingly tense, I reflected on the important and often dismissed power of empathy and how it could help de-escalate tense situations.  Click HERE to read my piece.


China’s Trillion Dollar Silk Road

China’s One Belt, One Road strategy has received scant attention in the Western media.  In this short article, I reflect on how this trillion dollar development program might be a modern day Marshall Plan that secures markets for Chinese goods and services for years to come.  Click HERE to read the article.


To Fix Europe, Break It

Amidst constant banter of a potential “Brexit,” I penned a short piece that suggested Europe was terminally ill and that a British exit from the European Union didn’t really matter.  There are much deeper problems.  Click HERE to read my argument.


Will India Ever Emerge?

As India celebrated its “Make In India” week, I reviewed the development strategy in light of Prime Minister Modi’s stated goal that it would generate 100 million jobs.  Because of automated manufacturing technologies, India may have missed the window to replicate the Chinese, manufacturing-led development model.  Read more HERE.